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3 Billion Apps and Google stumbles over the threshold of the smartphone market

by Pete Gerr on January 12, 2010

If you haven’t figured it out already, I’m a big fan of Macs and Apple and run my personal and professional lives on Apple products. I’m also an “informationista” – my silly word for  a student of the explosion of digital information and the transformation our lives, businesses, and world is in the midst of. Google rules the world of information, or search at least, but its recent foray into selling smartphones with the launch of the Nexus One, I think, will fail, at least in economic terms. I’ve got about 3,000,000,000 reasons why.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big Google fan too. Information increases in value exponentially when it’s freely-available and this is the information age, isn’t it? Making information freely-available, and more importantly, enabling anyone, anywhere with an open internet connection to find the information they’re looking for when they need it is a simple-enough premise but one with enormous logistical challenges to execute. Google has done more to bolster the information age than any other single vendor I can name.

It’s with the execution of Google’s transition to selling directly to consumers by releasing the first Google-branded smartphone that I believe the info-giant may become mired.  Like several other smartphone handsets that run Google’s Android OS, the Nexus One is manufactured by HTC and appears to be a very capable, attractive, and powerful device. My point here – it’s not the handset or device that matters any more!

To build a true “iPhone killer” one has to have an online marketplace for the apps that run on that device – that business model, and the App Store, is the genius behind Apple’s iPhone, and has forever changed how consumers use their smartphones and what they expect from them. It is the same business model that made the iPod the market-defining MP3 player for the past decade; sure the device has to be great, but it is iTunes that creates and sustains demand. “Build the marketplace and they will come“.

iPhone Line at NYC Apple Store

iPhone Line at NYC Apple Store

The power of the online marketplace cannot be underestimated. Once opened, it took approximately 9 months for Apple to sell 1,000,000 apps. The 2,000,000 milestone came just 5 months later. It took less than 4 months to reach the 3,000,000 mark. Alas, the network effect of Metcalfe’s Law crossbred with an online marketplace that makes developing, selling, browsing for, and buying products, in this case apps, easy.

I’m not convinced Google is up to the task of taking on Apple in the direct-to-consumer market. Marketing and selling consumer products is the easy part. Providing customer support for these products when something goes wrong is a more complex and costly challenge. Especially when you’re buying a high-end, premium product, if and when something goes wrong, you expect (and deserve) premium support – this is something Apple does very well. Google’s historical approach to customer support relies on online user-generated support forums, online FAQs, and sometimes email responses. Think that’ll work when a Nexus One user bricks their new $500 phone?

Sure, the Nexus One was over-hyped, and its capabilities perhaps over-promised, and we’re now left with the collective let-down that comes with that. Now that the device is actually here, it’s essentially just another Android-based phone, albeit a very good one.  If Google intends to expand Android’s influence across the global smartphone market to the same degree of frenzy-inducing, sidewalk-camping, gotta-have-one way that Apple has, it’s got to do a lot more than deliver a cool device and an updated FAQ. Even if its aspirations are more modest than Apple’s, Google has entered a different market that requires a different business model and a larger investment to support and service.

So, what do you think?

I’m very interested in your thoughts and experiences whether you’re an iPhone, Droid, Blackberry or you’ve made the leap to Nexus One.

Do you think Google’s up to the task? If so, why?

I hope to hear from you.

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[...] here I stand – an informationista, someone who studies the evolution of digital information and its impact on our lives, economy and [...]

[...] spot in U.S. smartphone subscriber share. I’ve written previously about my affinity for both Apple and Google products, but the Android vs. iOS battle to me is a study in business [...]

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Pete Gerr - Director, Strategic and Solutions Marketing

Pete Gerr
Director, Strategic & Solutions Marketing

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